GDP forecasted to grow by 4% in 2018

According to Statistics Mauritius, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices is forecasted to grow by around 4% in 2018, based on information available on key sectors of the island’s economy, higher than the 3.7% growth in 2017.

 

In its latest bulletin, this government institution said it based its main assumptions for the forecast of 2018 on the following: Agriculture, forestry and fishing will grow by 2% based on a sugar production of around 350,000 tonnes same as in 2017 and an expected increase of 2.5% in non-sugarcane agricultural activities; manufacturing to grow by around 1.3%, higher than the 1.2% growth in 2017; construction to grow by 9.5% compared to 7.5% in 2017; accommodation and food service activities to grow by 3.8% with tourist arrivals forecasted at around 1,425,000 compared to 1,360,000 in 2017; and financial and insurance activities to grow by 5.5%, same as in 2017.

Regarding investment, it said private sector investment would increase by 7.9% in nominal terms to reach MRs 60,2 billion in 2017 from MRs 55,8 billion in 2016. In real terms, this represents a further growth of 6.2% after a growth of 6.1% in 2016. While public sector investment is estimated at MRs 19,8 billion in 2017, representing a nominal increase of 3.1% from MRs 19,2 billion in 2016. After removing the price effect, public sector investment would grow by 1.4% compared to a decline of 2.8% in 2016.

Statistics Mauritius further indicated that imports of goods and services are expected to reach MRs 247,5 billion in 2017 from MRs 234 billion in 2016, representing a nominal increase of 5.7%. In real terms, a growth of 1.4% is expected after a decline of 0.2% in 2016. While exports of goods and services would increase by 1.8% to MRs 196,7 billion in 2017 from MRs 193,2 billion in 2016. In real terms, this represents a growth of 0.1%.

Thus, net exports of goods and services would result in a deficit of MRs 50,8 billion in 2017 compared to MRs 40,9 billion in 2016. This represents 11% of GDP at market prices in 2017, higher than the figure of 9.4% in 2016. Exclusive of aircraft and marine vessel, the deficit would be 10.7% in 2017 compared to 9.1% in 2016.

 

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