Trade Info: Forecast 2017

 

Based on recent past trends and information from various sources, total exports for the year 2017 is forecasted at around Rs 83,000 million and imports at Rs 177,000 million. Trade deficit for 2017 is therefore expected to be around Rs 94,000 million.

Total exports for the third quarter of 2017 amounted to Rs 21,111 million, 1.5% more compared to the corresponding quarter of 2016. This is mainly explained by increases in exports of “Ship’s stores & bunkers” (+26.4%), “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (+17.5%) and “Food and live animals” (+10.0%), partly offset by decreases in exports of “Machinery and transport equipment (-32.7%) and “Miscellaneous manufactured goods (-6.6%).

Exports of Export Oriented Enterprises (EOE) rose by 4.6% to Rs 11,697 million.

Exports to our main buyers went up for Italy (+16.5%), South Africa (+14.4%), Spain (+12.4%), France (+10.4%) and UK (+5.9%) but dropped for USA (-19.9%) and Madagascar (-18.2%).

Compared to the previous quarter, total exports for the third quarter of 2017 rose by 3.7%. This rise is mainly due to increases in exports of “Machinery and transport equipment” (+53.8%), “Animals and vegetables oils, fats & waxes” (+10.3%), Miscellaneous manufactured goods” (+6.8%) and “Food and live animals” (+4.7%), partly offset by decreases in the exports of “Crude materials, inedible, except fuels” (-10.2%), “Chemicals and related products” (-6.6%) and “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-3.1%).

Increases were registered in exports to South Africa (+21.8%), UK (+12.7%), Spain (+4.2%), USA (+3.0%) and France (+2.2%) while exports to Italy and Madagascar decreased by 33.6% and 11.1% respectively.

Total imports rose by 3.6% from Rs 41,889 million in the third quarter of 2016 to Rs 43,379 million in the third quarter of 2017. Increases were noted in imports of “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related products” (+31.5%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (+4.9%) and “Machinery and transport equipment” (+0.6%), partly offset by decreases in the imports of “Food and live animals” (-2.9%) and “Chemicals and related products” (-2.2%).

Imports from our main suppliers rose for South Africa (+24.7%), France (+8.5%) and India (+6.9%) while those from China fell by 7.1%.

Compared to the previous quarter, total imports for the third quarter of 2017 fell by 2.2%.  This is mainly due to decreases in imports of “Machinery and transport equipment” (-4.3%), “Miscellaneous manufactured articles” (-3.7%), “Chemicals & related products” (-1.9%) and “Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material” (-1.8%), partly offset by increases in imports of “Food and live animals” (+3.5%) and “Mineral fuels, lubricants and related products” (+3.3%).

Imports from our main suppliers increased for France (+7.7%), India (6.3%) and South Africa (+3.5%) but decreased for China (-15.5%).

The trade deficit for the third quarter of 2017 works out to Rs 22,268 million, 5.6% higher than the deficit of Rs 21,097 million for the corresponding quarter of 2016. Compared to the previous quarter, the deficit was lower by 7.2%.

 

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